11 more years of drought: Dire forecast for Goulburn region

Canberra Times


Robyn Powell
Sunday, 3 September 2006

THE prolonged drought devastating the Goulburn region could last another 11 years, according to the owner of a grazing property that has kept rainfall records since 1895.

Crookwell grazier Jeff Prell, of Gundowringa, 30km north-west of Goulburn, said the current dry was part of a 100-year cycle, which meant the region was six years into a 17-year drought.

Mr Prell, 75, said the last significant drought was between 1895 and 1912, based on rainfall figures from his property. The last above-average rainfall was 1973-76.

"We have got to look at history and history always repeats itself," he said.

"It has been 30 years since water-making rain. The ground gets so dry ... it takes three years to fill the ground to make the water run."

Substantial rain this September to November would help feed the lambs born last week, but it was unlikely to boost key water supplies.

Goulburn has been on Level 5 water restrictions for the past two years, with no outside watering allowed.

Last November, Mr Prell and his son Charlie sold 323ha of Gundowringa, almost a third of the property. "We did it to get the bank off our back, try and level up our accounts to survive," Jeff Prell said.

Charlie Prell, 49, said stock numbers in the Rural Lands Protection Board region were down 45 per cent from 2000, which included the Gunning, Collector and Yass areas.

"Hardly anybody I know in this area is relying just on farming income ... they get government exceptional circumstances assistance, or they have had to work in town, or have some sort of family allowance," he said.

For extra income the Prells planned a wind farm of up to 30 turbines, in addition to operating a tourist bed and breakfast.

Seasons without enough rain were taking a toll emotionally, they said.

"Most farmers are men and most are reasonably isolated ... a lot of them have strong egos and there is a lot of hidden depression out there, and suicide is a big part of that," Charlie Prell said.

He said many farmers had sold up to do something else.

"If we don't get a spring this year ... the big impact will be on the social communities of the little towns like Crookwell, Gunning and Collector and even Goulburn.

"Banks are going to have to make some hard decisions.

"There are politicians and bureaucrats saying this isn't a drought, this is normal because it has been going for five years.

"But those figures demonstrate it probably is normal, but it is part of a cycle."

Bureau of Meteorology Victorian climate meteorologist Harvey Stern said rainfall could follow a pattern but was not used as a forecasting tool.

While there was no harm in looking at rainfall trends, the bureau could only limit predictions to three months.

"Who knows what the future holds? In another 10 years someone might make a breakthrough," he said.