The Age
September 14, 2006 - 10:20AM
A forecast that another El Nino is on the way means even harsher conditions for drought-parched eastern Australia, a climatologist has warned.
The US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration has reported that an El Nino, an extreme warming of equatorial waters in the Pacific Ocean that causes regional drought, has formed and will last into 2007.
Associate Professor Stewart Franks, from Newcastle University, said that in eastern Australia, El Nino typically led to lower than normal rainfall from October to March.
"Our concern is that we're already in a drought," he said.
"We had an El Nino about four years ago, 2001-2003, and what it meant is that we had that awful drought.
"We've not had good rains since, really, and so we're still in that drought.
"Now with the prospect of an El Nino on top of that, it means that agriculture is going to struggle again."
Prof Franks said perhaps even more significantly, water resources and supplies were already so low that a new El Nino posed quite a threat to urban populations.
"It's entirely feasible we'll see much stronger restrictions than we have seen over previous years," he said.
"All over eastern Australia there are many urban water supplies which are already struggling and this El Nino is possibly the worst news we could have."
AAP
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