The excuses have dried up — we must sign the Kyoto pact

SMH

October 15, 2006


John Howard has little choice but to review his sceptical outlook as the harsh reality of global warming makes itself clear.

FINALLY, it seems that not only is the warming planet thawing the great polar ice caps, but it is also melting Prime Minister John Howard's reluctance to accept the reality of global warming. With Australia in the grip of the worst drought on record, and scorching October weather leaving many voters feeling suffocated even before summer, the PM may have little choice but to start shifting to the left on environment policy before the ground shifts beneath him. At the annual federal conference of the Nationals in Canberra yesterday, the conversation rarely strayed from drought and climate change. And what are we going to do about it, many conference delegates asked.

For years, Mr Howard has been a sceptic on the effects of climate change. A few months ago he told the ABC's Four Corners program that while he accepted global warming's broad theory, "I am sceptical about a lot of the more gloomy predictions". Yet those gloomy predictions are already starting to arrive, most visibly in the form of the drought crippling the farm sector along the south-eastern seaboard. Less rainfall in the south, more rainfall in the north has long been one of the key predictions of the effects of global warming for Australia. And guess what? This is exactly what is happening. For the farmers struggling to make ends meet, we would contend this is what might be called a "pretty gloomy outcome". But does the PM doubt the rainfall figures? Perhaps Mr Howard, who rarely goes a day without hopping into his jet aircraft, should spend more time looking out the window at the effects of the paucity of rain on the ground below. Or as former US vice-president Al Gore pointed out on his recent visit to Australia, forecasters "predicted more category 5 cyclones. You had two of them this year … and a category 4 as well. I think it's the challenge of our lifetimes, and our lifetimes represent the period when the human species will make fateful decisions that will determine the future of human civilisation." Mr Howard could also do worse than listen to his own parliamentary secretary with responsibility for water, Malcolm Turnbull, who said in a speech to the Australian National University last week that: "Climate change is not a theory but a fact, as we see particularly starkly in Australia." And as the drought worsens, the weather conditions become ever drier, and the heat from the hundreds of bushfires blazing around the country grows more intense, Mr Howard will, in the lead-up to next October's election, begin to look ever more isolated if he continues to hold the line against decisive action on climate change.

Whatever other policy fixes Mr Howard is now contemplating as he looks to shore up his electoral prospects, he must move Australia into line with the rest of the developed world and sign the Kyoto Protocol. Mr Howard says nothing will be gained by this — nonsense. Already he admits Australia will not meet the second round of reduced greenhouse gas emission targets set for the nation under Kyoto, yet a few years ago he was boasting that we were on track to meet those same targets. Perhaps we would have tried harder had we been a signatory? And if Australia signs, that puts more pressure on the US to sign, which will, in turn, mean still-developing industrial powerhouses such as China will feel pressure to sign up.